Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Florida makes Rudy cry

Wow. So it seems like Rudy made the wrong decision. Today Floridians decided that John McCain would be a better nominee for President of the United States, along with Hillary Clinton. I think that will be the way the country also goes.

Rudy is struggling for third place, nearly even with Mike Huckabee. It doesn't seem like his campaign can go much further than tonight. However, how was Rudy to know? He couldn't have made a stronger showing in Iowa, with his liberal tendencies, nor in South Carolina. Michigan was conceivably MItt Romney's to lose, possibly because of the income differences between good ol' Mitt and the multitudes of laid off voters there, but in hindsight, Mitt pulled it out and Rudy did well to not have wasted his resources. However, the one state I don't quite understand is New Hampshire. That is where McCain gathered most of his momentum, and Rudy could have been seen as a local(ish) vote in that state. It was really a poor calculation. It seems obvious to say it now, but I think for the last six years people (republicans) have been asking themselves how things would be different if John McCain had been elected in 2000, and now they get the chance to vote for him. He was Rudy's big opponent, and he was able to grab the momentum in New Hampshire, and he isn't giving it away. He already looks like a national candidate, which was Rudy's only claim to fame.

Now, I think the democratic candidacy is still somewhat up in the air, but I think Hillary will win it. She will take New York, probably California, and Obama will take Illinois and Georgia. They will split some smaller states, but she will look like the winner, and then she is back as the inevitable candidate. I am going to pretend John Edwards isn't in the race, and I am going to say it will be so much more difficult to survive until the convention if their are only two candidates. I can see the republicans getting to a brokered convention, especially with the southern states in the mix and giving Huckabee a possible boost, but with only two viable democratic candidates, it will be easier for that tree to fall one way or the other, and I think it will fall to Hillary.

So, McCain versus Clinton. I am not sure it looks good for the democrats if that is the case.

1 comment:

Politicojunkie said...

I think you're right about McCain, especially with his new endorsements today. To my mind, the jury's still out on the Democratic side. We'll see on Tuesday...