Sunday, March 02, 2008

Hillary is going to lose

I was wrong. I mentioned earlier that I thought Hillary was going to win the Democratic nomination, and now I am not so sure. Obama supporters are doing a great job keeping the momentum and the spotlight on them. It was a great move today to pull the news coverage towards them by asking Hillary to drop out if she doesn't win some big states on Tuesday. Most people read the headlines to mean that Hillary was basically staying in the same way Huckabee is staying in: without a chance in the world of actually winning. And that means that only two days before the next round of important voting, it looks like Obama has already won.

I don't think Obama should be the democratic nominee. I do like Hillary, but mainly I question giving support to Obama. I question Obama because I think most of the reason he is doing so well is because he is unknown. Though the press has done its perfunctory job of digging into his background, mainly he is a blank slate: one on which people are projecting their own desired candidate traits. Because we don't know how he would react in a specific situation, everyone assumes that he would react with them. He is basically being rewarded because he is an unknown, and I don't think that should be a reason to win.

I should clarify that I don't think that Obama has some skeletons hiding in his closet that are waiting to pop out. In fact I don't think he does, but I don't think he should be ahead simply because Hillary has made bold and public support of certain initiatives such as healthcare for every American.

I remember not so long ago another president promised to reach across the aisle and change politics as usual. He actually even had a pretty good record to show that he would work with the other party (unlike Obama's short record, which basically looks like the Democratic platform, and shows little-to-no work with Republicans.) However, that president has changed his tune, and become one of the most divisive presidents in memory. Oh well.


Anonymous said...

Ben, I disagree completely with your assessment of why Obama is ahead and your comments like "I don't think he should be ahead simply because Hillary has made bold and public support of certain initiatives such ash healthcare for every American." I think Obama is ahead because he offers a positive message and alternative to politics as usual. He is truly inspirational, and I think that's exactly what the country is looking for in light of the current administration.

benhood said...

Whoops! I think I had a little typo in there. Unless I really meant "ash healthcare." Anyway...

It is fantastic that Obama is exciting people, and trying to change politics. However, if one party could change politics on their own, it would have happened long ago. The Clintons really thought they could change politics, and I really think they tried. They succeeded in so many things, but however optimistic the Clintons were, the Republicans were right there to pull them back down. I am afraid that Obama either doesn't realize that he won't be able to change politics just by hoping, or that he is actively packaging himself up to sell to the people.

Furthermore, I think honestly the best "change politics" candidate in the race is John McCain. I mean, the Republican party hates him, and he has a record of bucking the system. How's is that for changing politics?

Anonymous said...

I'm going to disagree again on your comments on the politics of change. ;-)

Generally speaking, I think Obama and McCain both have some roughly similar level of appeal to independents. The difference is that Obama's party likes him and only some segments of McCain's likes him. I don't think it is necessary for your party to hate you in order to bring about change.

I think Obama is the best "change politics" candidate. You're right, in that politicians cannot change politics on their own. The way you change politics is to get people to believe in change and then put pressure on their elected representatives to change.

So in order to be a politician of change, people have to believe that you are a politician of change. Virtually no one sees McCain this way - he ran as a maverick in 2000, but this time around, he's as closely associated with the current administration as anyone is. Plus, what new ideas is he bringing to the table? On the other hand, Obama is bringing whole new demographics to the political process - in particular, the young. THAT's how you change politics, to touch and inspire new people and to get them involved in the process, to put pressure on the system. Plus, as unfair as it is, just look at the two of them side by side... which one of them do you think people look at and think "he is a new and different type of president, and I believe that he can change politics for the better"?